9:11pm: in all the key swing states, the early vote is going pretty much exactly as the Obama campaign expected.
9:08: Mike Huckabee on Fox: "I think Republicans have done a pathetic job of reaching out to people of color. Something we have got to work on." As I noted in my election night primer, whether the GOP can fully grapple with this issue in the coming year or two is going to determine the future of the party.
9:06pm: county-by-county numbers in Florida (and to a lesser extent Virginia) seem to be good for Obama -- he is keeping pace where he needs to keep pace. And North Carolina, surprisingly, is still too close to call.
8:46pm: In 2008, Obama won 46 percent of Ohio whites. He's now winning 42
percent. That's right at the bottom of what he should be able to get to
eke something out. But this poll has the black vote surging as a
proportion of turnout, from 11% to 15%. If one of these numbers skews
back toward Romney -- like, the black vote falls to 12% -- we're at a
tie. But if it doesn't, Obama has buillt a new coalition that wins him
8:28pm: Andrew Sullivan reports that Fox News and Bill Reilly are blaming Sandy. And the takers.
8:21pm: nationally, some estimates are that the Latino vote is going everywhere from 62% for Obama in Florida, to 80% in the southwest. CNN is reporting on air that in Florida, preliminary
exit polls show that white voters make up 67 percent of the electorate
in the Sunshine State, down from 71 percent in 2008, and Latino voters
make up 16 percent, up from 14 percent in 2008. We may wind up with Romney winning Virginia and Obama winning Florida -- a surprise if it happens, but one that benefits Obama.
Thoughts on politics, cities and the state of American life, culture and economics, from the perspective of a pragmatic lefty historian. "Chants Democratic" comes from "Leaves of Grass" by Walt Whitman, the avatar of American Democracy.
- Mark Santow
- I am Associate Professor and Chair of the History Department at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth. I am also the Academic Director of the Clemente Course in the Humanities, in New Bedford MA. Author of "Social Security and the Middle Class Squeeze" (Praeger, 2005) and the forthcoming "Saul Alinsky the Dilemma of Race in the Post-War City" (University of Chicago Press), my teaching and scholarship focuses on American urban history, social policy, and politics. I am presently writing a book on home ownership in modern America, entitled "Castles Made of Sand? Home Ownership and the American Dream." I live in Providence RI, where I have served on the School Board since March 2015. All opinions posted here are my own.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
a fault line in the solid South?
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