It is now just past 10pm, and New Hampshire has been called for Obama. According to my projections from earlier today, while this only gets the President 4 electoral votes, it is in fact huge.
Of the swing states, I had Obama winning Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire, to get to 303. Winning NH enables Obama to lose in VA and OH, and still win, as long as he carries CO, NV, and IA.
Or, Obama can carry Florida...and lose all 3 of the above, and win. And even North Carolina is still in play.
In other words, my projection looks good -- but more importantly, Obama's re-election has become increasingly likely.
If Romney does indeed lose, the GOP would clearly have some reassessing to do, regardless of the reason. While the Party's sharp move to the Right briefly benefited it in 2010, it has cost it more than a half-dozen winnable Senate seats, and perhaps the White House, since. But more crucially, it has placed the Republican Party on the wrong side of the demographics -- and the wrong side of history.
This election, in practice, has been about race, and the new young multiracial America that is rapidly emerging.
Thoughts on politics, cities and the state of American life, culture and economics, from the perspective of a pragmatic lefty historian. "Chants Democratic" comes from "Leaves of Grass" by Walt Whitman, the avatar of American Democracy.
- Mark Santow
- I am Associate Professor and Chair of the History Department at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth. I am also the Academic Director of the Clemente Course in the Humanities, in New Bedford MA. Author of "Social Security and the Middle Class Squeeze" (Praeger, 2005) and the forthcoming "Saul Alinsky the Dilemma of Race in the Post-War City" (University of Chicago Press), my teaching and scholarship focuses on American urban history, social policy, and politics. I am presently writing a book on home ownership in modern America, entitled "Castles Made of Sand? Home Ownership and the American Dream." I live in Providence RI, where I have served on the School Board since March 2015. All opinions posted here are my own.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Romney's path narrows, Obama looks good, and the great GOP reckoning is nearly at hand
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